Nigeria’s Ascendant Oil Industry Faces Host of Pitfalls
Tuesday, August 24th, 2010
By SPENCER SWARTZ in London and WILL CONNORS in Lagos
Nigeria has decisively reclaimed the mantle of Africa’s top oil producer, with rising output and crude prices spurring growth in the continent’s most populous country. But the same industry driving the economy—oil—faces a host of challenges.
In the next month, Nigeria’s national assembly is expected to approve energy legislation that U.S. and European oil executives warn could curtail investment. The presidential election early next year may reignite fresh violence in the Niger Delta, the West African country’s main oil region, where Royal Dutch Shell says its pipeline was attacked recently.
The sabotage reflects longstanding discontent among the poor in the area. Some attacks are conducted by oil thieves who set up illegal refineries.
Nigeria—which holds the world’s ninth-biggest proven oil reserves— produced almost 2.2 million barrels a day in July, its highest average since November 2007, according to analysts and traders.
The upswing stems largely from a lull in militant violence against Niger Delta oil pipelines and is linked to a government amnesty deal for militants who had been on a bombing spree against oil-industry infrastructure.
Thanks to the relative peace, idle oil fields are pumping again, allowing Nigeria this year to consistently produce more crude than Angola, Africa’s second-biggest producer.
Output has also increased amid the rise in fuel prices this year. Benchmark U.S. crude prices are expected to average $78 a barrel in 2010, up from $62 last year. That could push Nigeria’s economy to expand by about 7% this year, some analysts say, putting it among the fastest growing in Africa. But the rising crude output masks weaknesses in the industry.
An ominous sign for Nigeria’s production is slumping international investment. Foreign direct investment, mostly in the petroleum sector, sank to $5.85 billion last year from $13.96 billion in 2006, according to a recent United Nations report.
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